Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Thu Oct 25 2018

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 29 2018 - 12Z Fri Nov 02 2018

...Heavy precipitation for much of the Panhandle...

As the deterministic models continue to struggle with how to
resolve the unfolding of the upper low south of the Aleutians
early next week (Mon), the ensembles remain in relatively good
agreement but with residual spread in track of the lead system.
The 12Z GFS offered the best agreement with the ensembles and
continuity with some minor changes in timing south of 60N. To the
northwest, ensembles have trended toward more troughing over
northeastern Russia which may carry a cold front into NW Alaska
atop building ridging into the Gulf. A more significant upper low
will move off Kamchatka next ~Wed or so and head east just south
of the Aleutians by the end of the period.

The pattern supports several inches of rain and higher elevation
snow for the Panhandle with several days of W to SW upper flow.
Both the National Blend of Models and in-house ensemble
bias-corrected QPF yield over 4" areal average of QPF in favored
areas with maxima nearly twice that. Temperatures are forecast to
be near to above average despite the troughing over the interior
as heights remain near or above average as well.

Fracasso


WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html