Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 15 2018 - 12Z Mon Nov 19 2018

Active pattern will continue for the high latitudes as the
models/ensembles continue the trend of a generally slower/deeper
system progression. The ECMWF ensemble mean has been best in
recent days while the deterministic models have wavered around it
and the GEFS mean. The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS matched fairly
closely to the ensemble consensus which served as a good starting
point. Given the trends, did not prefer any quicker solutions but
also not the much slower 12Z GFS though it was within the ensemble
spread. The flow along 70N has also been inconsistently handled in
the models despite the stable prediction of upper ridging or an
upper high over northeastern Russia. Slowed the lead system by
about 1/2 a day as it lifts into the Gulf late Friday into
Saturday. Next system passing along/near the Aleutians will fill
in right behind it which will keep the Panhandle rather wet (or
white). Temperatures will be near to below average in most areas
of the interior with near to above average temperatures along the
North Slope and through the Panhandle.


Fracasso



WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html