Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 244 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 16 2018 - 12Z Tue Nov 20 2018 Models and even the ensembles have struggled to consistently capture the forecast outside of the largest scale. Even the ECMWF ensemble mean, which had been least susceptible to cycle-to-cycle variability, has shifted both over the high latitudes in addition to across the lower 48. The 00Z ECMWF recent GFS runs matched fairly closely to the ensemble consensus early in the period (Fri-Sat) which served as a good starting point. Lead system in the Gulf Friday will lift northward and northeastward into the Panhandle as its southern portion stretches to the south aloft, becoming the main system as the northern portion weakens into the ridge. On its heels will be another system moving through the Aleutians but with a large N-S spread in track. Tried to balance continuity (to the south) with the trend northward at a bit quicker pace than 24 hrs ago. That will move into the Gulf next Sun/Mon as another system slides eastward along or just north of the Aleutians -- but with a lot of uncertainty per recent runs. Wet pattern for southeastern Alaska/Panhandle with the upper ridge axis near 130W (NNW-SSE). Fracasso WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html