Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EST Mon Jan 07 2019

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 11 2019 - 12Z Tue Jan 15 2019

Model guidance continues to show blocking over the mainland,
allowing for a stronger, more active trough over the Gulf.
Multiple deep low pressure systems will pass south of the state
before slowing over the eastern Gulf. The trough will become
negatively-tilted over the eastern Gulf, which is favored setup
for higher precipitation for the southern coastal areas and
Southeast Alaska. The ECWMF, CMC and the ensemble means continue
to have a better handle of the synoptic evolution; albeit with
increasing spread in the later periods and were the preferred
blend for this forecast package. The GFS differs from other
guidance in that it depicts further deepening of the trough where
the rest does not and was not utilized.

In terms of sensible weather, a vast portion of the Interior will
be entrenched in a well-below normal airmass. Some overnight lows
will dip into the minus 40s for some of the sheltered valleys!  A
gradual moderating trend is expected to ensue by next weekend, but
slower than previously advertised owing to a blocking flow pattern
aloft and the slow moving upper low over northern Alaska.  Strong
winds are expected for the Aleutians and the Bering Sea for the
end of the week as an intense oceanic storm approaches the central
Aleutians and then gradually weakens over the weekend.  Much of
the mainland should remain mostly dry with some scattered
flurries, and scattered to widespread rain/snow expected across
panhandle region and coastal areas of southern Alaska and the
Aleutians.

Campbell


WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html