Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 26 2019 - 12Z Wed Jan 30 2019

...Guidance and Predictability Assessment...

The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived
from a composite of reasonably clustered guidance from the latest
GFS/ECMWF, GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means, and National Blend of
Models days 4/5 (this weekend). Transitioned to just the ensemble
means and NBM by days 7/8 amid growing forecast spread/uncertainty
and run to run variability. This maintains good WPC continuity.

...Pattern and Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The Alaskan southern tier should remain in a favorable pattern for
precipitation days 4-8 with lead flow and embedded system
energies. However, the brunt of heavy snow and coastal rains will
focus this weekend over the Aleutians/AKpen, with heavy snow also
for the  southwest and western AK into the interior with approach
of a potent Bering Sea gale. A second major low is forecast to
again threaten the Aleutians and AKpen/Southwest AK early-mid next
week. These lows also will present a significant maritime high
winds/waves hazard.   

Schichtel

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html