Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
102 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 27 2019 - 12Z Thu Jan 31 2019

...Guidance and Predictability Assessment...

Today's WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily
derived from a composite of reasonably clustered guidance from the
latest GFS/ECMWF, GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means, and National
Blend of Models this weekend. Transitioned to just the ensemble
means and NBM Tuesday-next Thursday amid growing forecast
spread/uncertainty and run to run variability. This maintains good
WPC continuity.

...Pattern and Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The Alaskan southern tier and Gulf of AK should remain in a
pattern with periodic precipitation days 4-8 with a series of
modest systems. However, the brunt of heavy snow and coastal rains
will focus Sunday over the AKpen, spreading into southwest/western
AK and the interior through early next week with the approach of a
deepened Bering Sea gale and subsequent inland moving trough
energy aloft. A major upstream low is meanwhile forecast to
threaten the Aleutians early-mid next week. These lows also
present a significant maritime high winds/waves hazard.   

Schichtel

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html