Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 30 2019 - 12Z Sun Feb 03 2019

Models/ensembles remain flummoxed on the pattern evolution over
much of the eastern Pacific from the sub-tropics to the arctic,
but at least agree that the blocky flow will relax by next
weekend. The 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS and 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean
loosely cluster together through the period and a variable blend
of those models/ensembles formed a good starting point. Areas of
contention lied across the interior Thu/Fri as a trough digs
southward to the east of the retreating upper high, bringing in
much colder temperatures to much of the mainland. Systems in the
Bering or southwest of the Aleutians will attempt to push eastward
but largely weaken as ridging progresses eastward south of the
Gulf. Co-dependent on that, the upper high position near the New
Siberian Islands (75N/140E) favors the trough or upper low to its
south (southwest of the Aleutians) and building ridging south of
the Gulf by the end of the period. This would keep a wet pattern
for the Aleutians but intermittently wet/white for the Panhandle
and Southcentral.


Fracasso

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html