Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 31 2019 - 12Z Mon Feb 04 2019

Synoptic pattern during the medium range will see a retreat of the
upper high from near the Bering Strait on Thursday northwestward
into Siberia next week. In turn, troughing on either side--western
Bering Sea and eastern Alaska/Panhandle--on Thursday will wobble
around as mid-latitude upper ridging builds into the Gulf and
Southcentral by the end of the period. During the evolution, a
compact shortwave or possibly small closed low will swing through
eastern areas and bring in much colder temperatures to the
interior/Southcentral/Panhandle.

12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF fell squarely within the ensemble spread
though with ever-uncertain embedded systems still tough to pin
down. Blend with their ensemble means softened their hard edges
since there has been little run-to-run consistency with sfc waves
while the larger frontal systems remain fairly well-forecast. As
such, maintained good continuity from the previous forecast given
the pattern shifts during the forecast time.

Fracasso

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html