Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 25 2019 - 12Z Fri Mar 01 2019

Strong upper high will remain in place over interior Alaska next
week with troughing in the western and central Bering Sea. Systems
will lift northward across the Aleutians into northeastern Russia
with any frontal boundary weakening near the western coastline in
the Bering. Used a majority weight of the recent 12Z GFS (and
parallel GFS) with the 00Z ECMWF and a minority weight of both of
their ensemble means to iron out some track differences with the
lead system in the western Bering next Mon/Tue. Trended toward
just the 00Z ECMWF with its ensemble mean and the 06Z GEFS mean as
the GFSs were quicker with the second low pressure center into the
western/central Aleutians next Thu (rather than Wed). Ensembles
were somewhat split but favored the slower ECMWF-like solution.

Most of the state will remain precipitation-free under the upper
high with rain/snow confined to the Aleutians and somewhat into
western Alaska. Temperatures will be mostly above average but
likely quite variable through the interior due to inversions in
the thermal profile with little mixing. The greatest temperature
anomalies will occur across the North Slope where temperatures
exceeding 40 deg F above average are possible. High temperatures
in Utqiagvik may even approach the freezing mark which is near
their record max values for the winter.

Fracasso


WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html