Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 141 PM EST Sat Mar 02 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 06 2019 - 12Z Sun Mar 10 2019 Upper ridging will only slowly trend eastward by the end of next weekend into western Canada. This favors a continued stormy pattern for the Bering Sea/Aleutians and western/southwestern Alaska that will slowly trend across Southcentral and eventually the Panhandle by the end of the period. The models/ensembles were fairly well-clustered through the period and the 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF were close enough to their means and each other to utilize a consensus blend for at least the first half of the forecast period. Trended to just the ECMWF and especially its ensemble mean for next Sat/Sun due to differences in track/timing in the Bering Sea that spill eastward. The ECMWF ensemble mean has been consistently south with that weekend storm compared to the GEFS mean (which has trended southward toward its maximum spread). This also seemed to fit the pattern evolution of retreating ridging. A pair of deep systems will move through the Bering Sea/Aleutians with strong winds (40-50kts) and a swath of rain/snow into western then southern Alaska. The first will be Wed/Thu and the second next Sat/Sun, each with a central pressure nearing 960mb. Precipitation will focus along/ahead of the front initially into Southcentral with southerly flow. Temperatures will trend colder back toward climatological values in the interior as heights lower. Fracasso WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html