Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
209 PM EST Sun Mar 03 2019

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 07 2019 - 12Z Mon Mar 11 2019

Pattern change will finally work its way into Alaska next weekend
as the upper ridging gives way to troughing out of the Bering Sea.
A lead deep system will move through the Bering Sea on Thu/Fri and
then another right behind it Sat/Sun that will be the final kicker
to the upper ridge. Models/ensembles have been in relatively good
agreement with expected timing/track detail differences that were
easily resolved via a blend of the 12Z GFS/FV3-GFS, 06Z GEFS mean,
and 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean to form a consensus position on
each system. This fell in line with ongoing WPC continuity and
minimized daily shifts in the guidance. Clustering improved with
the second system for next weekend so that a majority
deterministic blend was used through next Sunday.

Strong winds (40-50kts) and a swath of rain/snow with each system
will push eastward into/through Southcentral and then into the
Panhandle. Southerly flow will focus precipitation on the west
side of Cook Inlet and the southern/southeastern side of the Kenai
peninsula. Temperatures will trend colder back toward
climatological values in the interior as heights lower, but
increase in the Panhandle as onshore flow increases.

Fracasso


WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif</u></a>
<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml</u></a>
<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html</u></a>