Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 PM EST Mon Mar 04 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Mar 08 2019 - 12Z Tue Mar 12 2019 Despite the stark change in the upper pattern across Alaska by next week, the models/ensembles remain in good agreement through the period. A blend of the GFS/ECMWF with their ensemble means (about 60/40 deterministic/ensemble weighting) served as a good starting point given the expected track/depth shifts in the models from cycle to cycle. ECMWF has generally been a bit more consistent but the GFS was certainly within the tight cluster of solutions. Lead deep system out of the short range will split and weaken/dissipate by Saturday as another deep system (central pressure perhaps below 960mb and wind 40-50kts) that will finally be the catalyst that dislodges the seemingly omnipresent upper ridging over the 49th state the past few weeks. This will bring in colder air to the interior/North Slope but milder air to the Panhandle which will lose its cold easterly flow for onshore flow and much more rain/snow. Ensembles and certainly the deterministic models pick up on another system out of the central North Pacific next Sunday/Monday that may lift into the Gulf next Tuesday or so as troughing settles along 160W. Fracasso Hazards: - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 10-Mar 11. - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Mon, Mar 9-Mar 11. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Fri-Mon, Mar 8-Mar 11. - High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Thu-Mon, Mar 7-Mar 11. - High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Aleutians, Thu-Mon, Mar 7-Mar 11. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html