Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Tue Apr 02 2019
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 06 2019 - 12Z Wed Apr 10 2019
Models and ensembles reasonably agree that a positively tilted
upper trough across western and northern Alaska will deepen as it
retrogrades into the Bering Sea. A cooling trend will bring below
normal temperatures across much of northern Alaska as well as the
higher elevations of southern Alaska, while above normal
temperatures continue over southwestern Alaska. Active storm
track will stay mainly south of Alaska through the medium range
period. The consensus of the ensemble mean solutions agree
reasonably well that old occluded cyclones will decay as they head
toward the Gulf of Alaska. The next significant cyclone should
likely impact the western Aleutians by early next week. The WPC
product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the
00z bias-corrected NAEFS mean, 00z ECMWF ensemble mean, 00z ECMWF,
06z/12z GFS, and 12z GEFS mean. Precipitation will be mainly
limited to parts of the Aleutians closer to the storm track, along
with the Alaska Panhandle and southern coastal Alaska.
Kong
Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards
-High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians,
Sun-Mon, Apr 7-Apr 8.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html