Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 404 PM EDT Wed Apr 03 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 07 2019 - 12Z Thu Apr 11 2019 Latest models and ensembles still generally agree that a positively tilted upper trough across western and northern Alaska will deepen as it retrogrades into the Bering Sea. Smaller scale details have been run to run inconsistent, but overall this favors a cooling trend for this medium range period across much of northern and interior Alaska as a front settles down toward southern Alaska. Meanwhile, an active storm track will stay mainly south of Alaska through the next week. A consensus of guidance solutions show that the main occluded cyclones will tend to decay as they head over the Gulf of Alaska. However, a threat also exists for a significant cyclone to impact the Aleutians/SW Alaska by day 7/8. The WPC product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means Sunday through Tuesday and then just the ensemble means by day 7/8 in a period of quickly increasing guidance forecast spread and uncertainty. Heavier precipitation will focus into the Aleutians/SW Alaska in the circlulation around the significant cyclone by next midweek, with additional potential along into the Alaska Panhandle and southern coastal Alaska. Schichtel Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards - High winds and heavy precipitation across the Aleutians and portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Apr 9-Apr 10. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html