Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Thu Apr 04 2019
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 08 2019 - 12Z Fri Apr 12 2019
Multiple upper lows over/near the mainland Monday will give way to
a more robust system in the Bering Sea next Wed-Thu with strong
winds and locally heavy rain. Ensembles were in very good
agreement overall with expected detail differences as evidenced by
the deterministic models. A blend of the 12Z/06Z GFS with the 00Z
ECMWF offered details to the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means through the
period.
Lead system next Mon/Tue will move eastward into/through the Gulf
but dive southeastward as ridging pushes northwestward out of
Canada toward the North Slope, helping to raise temperatures
across the interior as winds veer from NE or ENE to E or ESE.
Continued to show a deep low crossing the Aleutians late Tue into
early Wed with a central pressure likely near 960mb (some models
were in the 950s, others in the 960s) per the latest ensemble
spread. Parent low will linger over the open water while the front
will continue into the Gulf with the triple point
emerging/redeveloping near Kodiak. Precipitation will spread
eastward through Southcentral but focused along the coast.
Fracasso
Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards
- Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska and the
Aleutians, Wed-Thu, Apr 10-Apr 11.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians,
Wed-Thu, Apr 10-Apr 11.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html