Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Mon Apr 08 2019
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 12 2019 - 12Z Tue Apr 16 2019
Upper pattern will transition toward a more progressive flow after
a lead robust system (between the short and medium range periods)
exits the area late Friday/day 4. Focus will turn to another
Pacific system where the models/ensembles have trended decidedly
quicker over the past 24 hrs. The 12Z GFS was even quicker still,
but given the change in just a day, opted to rely on the ensemble
consensus around the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean as an insurance
policy on future slower corrections (should they occur). The
Sat/Sun system is forecast to push eastward along the Aleutians or
just into the Bering before streaming through the Gulf as the flow
becomes quite zonal in the mid-latitude eastern North Pacific. 00Z
ECMWF offered some details to its mean but was a bit slower. This
was compensated for by the relatively quicker 00Z NAEFS mean
(compared to the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean). That system is forecast
to reach the Panhandle early next week with its parent low
decaying in the Gulf.
Precipitation will focus along the Aleutians, through
Southcentral, and into the Panhandle but after the lead system
exits amounts should be modest at best given the quick
progression. Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average
from the interior northward, but near to below average along and
south of the Alaska range into the Panhandle.
Fracasso
Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska and the
Aleutians, Thu, Apr 11.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians,
Thu, Apr 11.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html