Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 232 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 26 2019 - 12Z Tue Apr 30 2019 ...Weather/Threats Highlights... The upcoming weather pattern will not be very active over most of Alaska for the next week with main storm tracks well south and west of the state. Moderate surface low developments over the northern Gulf of Alaska will support modest periods of precipitation inland into southern and southeastern Alaska as enhanced over favored coastal terrain. These lows will be supported by a mean Gulf of Alaska upper closed low/trough that will tend to weaken over the period. There will be storm potential well to the west of the state. Deepened but quite uncertain systems set to lift poleward off northeast Asia would threaten at least the Bering Sea, with some energies working northward up to the Arctic and western Alaska on the western periphery of a building upper ridge downstream around 165W. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was mainly derived from a composite blend of the well clustered 12 UTC GFS/GEFS and 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles Day 4/Friday. Forecast spread increases dramatically this weekend into next week and run to run continuity in the models has been less than stellar. Accordingly, shifted the WPC forecast strategy to embrace a blend of the 12 UTC GEFS mean and compatable 00 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean. This maintains good WPC continuity, but offers limited detail consistent with a pattern with below normal predictability. Schichtel Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html