Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 318 PM EDT Wed May 08 2019 Valid 12Z Sun May 12 2019 - 12Z Thu May 16 2019 Guidance holds a generally blocky flow pattern into next week as highlighted aloft by a closed/high amplitude and unsettling/precipitation focusing Bering Sea trough. This feature extends over the Aleutians to the north Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska, with a resultant high amplitude ridge downstream from the northeast Pacific to southeast/eastern Alaska. Latest models and ensembles are much less progressive and more stream separate compared to yesterdays runs day 6-8 flow to the south of the state. This would suggest some potential pattern transition as increasing energy infuses from the north-central Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska. This seems to favor offshore storm developments and maritime risks, albeit with details to become clearer at shorter time frames. Model and ensemble forecasts cluster better now into day 4/Sunday and a composite solution offers reasonable continuity. Guidance solutions then diverge quickly next week. Accordingly, the WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a blend of more compatable guidance from the 12 UTC GEFS mean and 00 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean, with smaller model and National Blend of Model inputs. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html