Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 PM EDT Thu May 09 2019 Valid 12Z Mon May 13 2019 - 12Z Fri May 17 2019 Latest guidance still generally holds a blocky flow pattern into next week as highlighted aloft by a closed/high amplitude and unsettling/modest precipitation focusing Bering Sea and Aleutians/Alaskan Peninsula to Gulf of Alaska trough. A resultant and high amplitude upper ridge extends downstream from the northeast Pacific and Alaskan Panhandle to a warmed Alaskan Interior. Emerging flow to the south of the state days 5-8 portends some pattern transition as increasing energy infuses from the north-central Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska to favor offshore and more progressive offshore storm developments with inherent maritime risks. Model and ensemble forecasts cluster better now day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday and a composite solution offers reasonable continuity. Guidance solutions then diverge quickly through later next week. Accordingly and in coordination with the local Alaskan weather forecast offices, the WPC Alaskan medium range product suite day 6-8 was primarily derived from a blend of compatable guidance from the 12 UTC GEFS mean and 00 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean, along with small model and National Blend of Model inputs to provide slightly better detail. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html