Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019 Valid 12Z Tue May 14 2019 - 12Z Sat May 18 2019 Upper ridging near the Sakhalin Oblast, the Canadian Archipelago/Northeastern Alaska, and just north of Hawai'i will favor troughing in between, roughly along 50N. Several smaller-scale features will wobble/rotate around/through the mean trough which limits predictability in the details, but was otherwise predictable at longer wavelengths. The 06Z GEFS mean was an exception as it made an adjustment away from its 00Z run that was rather agreeable with the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean. The 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF mostly agreed overall aside from the start of the period when the GFS was still a bit displaced to the northeast with the system south of the Aleutians. The 00Z UKMET was a better fit there. For Thu-Sat, the 12Z GFS came back into the cluster near the 00Z GEFS mean/ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean which carried low pressure eastward south of the Gulf toward Hadai Gwaii next weekend. This favors fairly dry conditions for much of the interior portions with rain/snow chances along the Aleutians/Panhandle with lesser amounts into Southcentral. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html