Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 328 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019 Valid 12Z Fri May 17 2019 - 12Z Tue May 21 2019 Troughing is favored over the Gulf of Alaska through the period with ridging nosing into eastern/northeastern Alaska this weekend into next week. Aside from one main area of low pressure, many smaller shortwaves will rotate around the broad circulation along 50N which will generally confine precipitation to southern coastal areas. The ensemble means have been much more consistent (especially the ECMWF ensemble mean) with the overall pattern as the short wavelength features are inherently hard to predict this far out. Daily changes to the forecast have been mitigated via the ensembles and generally the nearest deterministic model(s). 12Z GFS/FV3-GFS and 00Z ECMWF were in good agreement to start as the best-modeled system turns toward the far southern Gulf waters Saturday. Consensus now has the low stalling then shifting back southeastward rather that wrapping back northwestward into the Gulf. Thereafter, another weaker system will travel well south of the area as the upper trough changes shape and allows higher heights to push northwestward out of the Yukon into eastern interior areas. Back to the west, ridging toward the eastern coast of Kamchatka may allow for some height falls to slip southeastward into the Bering but the 00Z ECMWF appeared much too aggressive compared to the ensemble consensus. Temperatures should rise through the period especially through the interior, into the 60s to the low 70s while 50s/60s are forecast for coastal areas. Precipitation will generally be light with no direct mid-latitude moisture connection as it will be focused into SW Canada and the Pacific Northwest. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html