Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 04 2019 - 12Z Sat Jun 08 2019
Upper ridging will linger over the Bering Sea with an upper low to
its north in the Arctic (north of Siberia), an exiting system
along 50N into SW Canada, and another central Pacific system well
south of the area. That leaves most of the state in weak mid-level
flow out of the north with generally light precipitation and near
to above average temperatures.
The 12Z GFS/FV3-GFS made a shift toward the larger consensus
around the 00Z ECMWF with respect to an upper low moving westward
through the Beaufort Sea in the short term. Though earlier runs
brought this back to the east into northwestern Alaska, the newer
12Z runs maintain a westward motion. To the south, consensus
approach served as a good starting point for the exiting system
though Haida Gwaii late Tue/early Wed. Another system from the
central Pacific will slide eastward along 45N well south of the
area. This leaves much of the mainland with typical warm season
inland/valley troughing north of the Alaska Range with a daily
chance of showers/storms especially in higher terrain. Lifted
indices of 0 to -2 are forecast to expand into late next week,
supporting the thunderstorm risk.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html