Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 10 2019 - 12Z Fri Jun 14 2019

Upper ridging from the Bering Sea eastward through the interior
will help keep an upper low to the north in the Arctic and another
in the Gulf and south of the Aleutians next week. Models/ensembles
remain in good agreement overall and a blend of the 12Z
GFS/FV3-GFS with the 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean offered a good
starting point. The 06Z GEFS mean was displaced from that strong
consensus to start the forecast but then came back toward the
ECMWF ensemble mean by the end of next week.

North Slope - The upper low should largely stay over the Arctic
but may push a cold front into northwestern areas midweek as
heights lower. This may lower temperatures a bit for areas north
of the Brooks Range. Scattered showers (and mountain snow) will
spread eastward along/ahead of the front.

Gulf/Panhandle - Lead system will push through just before the
medium range with another moving into the Gulf Tuesday with a cold
front into the Panhandle around Wednesday. With the parent low
decaying in the Gulf, expect a rainy stretch for areas of
Southeastern Alaska. Multi-model/ensemble consensus blend suggests
widespread 1-2" with locally 3-5" as the triple point may push
through the central Panhandle, aligning the moisture plume into
the area.

Aleutians - Robust system should skirt just south of the island
chain per the latest consensus though the GEFS members were
notably shifted south Mon-Wed. This will bring rain/wind through
the islands especially Tue-Wed until the system slowly but
steadily moves eastward. As the upper high/ridging continues to
slide westward into northeastern Russia late next week, this
system may try to turn more northeastward into the AkPen by the
end of the period next Fri.


Fracasso


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php</u></a>

- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Tue-Wed, Jun 11-Jun
12.


WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif</u></a>
<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml</u></a>
<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html</u></a>