Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Fri Jun 07 2019

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 11 2019 - 12Z Sat Jun 15 2019

Upper ridging extends from the northern Bering Sea eastward across
central Ak days 4-8, surrounded by an upper low to the north in
the Arctic Ocean with a trough extending south to northern AK and
another in the Gulf and south of the Aleutians next week.
Models/ensembles remain in good agreement overall and a blend of
the 12Z GFS/06z GFS with the 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean/06z
GEFS Mean was used, which offered better than normal continuity
from yesterday's forecast days 4-7.

North Slope - The upper low should largely stay over the Arctic
but should push a cold front into northern areas midweek as
heights lower. This may lower temperatures a bit for areas north
of the Brooks Range. Scattered showers (and mountain snow) will
spread eastward along/ahead of the front.

Gulf of AK/Panhandle - The initial cyclone will weaken as it moves
east day 4 11 June and on day 5 as it approaches the coastal areas
of southern to southeast AK/panhandle.  Expect a period of showers
for Southeastern Alaska.
Probability of showers declines once the system has decayed on day
6 Thu 13 Jun.

Aleutians/Kodiak island - The next cyclone drifting slowly east
from the Western Pacific should approach the lower Aleutians on
day 4 Tue 11 Jun, and move just south of the chain on Wed,
bringing rain/windy conditions through the islands. As the system
departs the lower Aleutians Thu-Fri, the rain and winds subside,
while they pick up closer to the low in Kodiak Island and the
southern AK peninsula.

Petersen

Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php</u></a>

- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and
mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Jun 11-Jun 12.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Mon-Wed, Jun
10-Jun 12.
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Tue-Wed, Jun 11-Jun
12.


WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif</u></a>
<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml</u></a>
<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html"><u>https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html</u></a>