Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 314 PM EDT Sun Jun 09 2019 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 13 2019 - 12Z Mon Jun 17 2019 Two slowly moving upper lows to the north and south of the mainland will favor weak ridging across the interior during the period. The models/ensembles have been in general agreement in principle during the past several cycles, but the ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean (EPS) have exhibited greater stability than the GFS/GEFS or Canadian/GEPS. Using a 50/50 blend (ECMWF/EPS) maintained good continuity from the previous forecast with only a change toward quicker progression through the northern Pacific with a system potentially wrapping into the Gulf next weekend (low confidence with this scenario based on upstream conditions). Lead system south of the Aleutians on Thursday will bring rain/windy conditions through the islands as the frontal system moves east-northeastward. Parent low is forecast to stall near the AkPen or eastern Aleutians as precipitation spread along Southcentral into the Panhandle. Best focus for rainfall will be from Cold Bay east-northeastward on southeast-facing areas of Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula. Height falls will be less intense into the Panhandle as the system loses upper support in advance of moving into Southeastern portions. Slow moving upper low invites another wave to develop on its south side and potentially move northeastward toward Kodiak early next week, but confidence is low as the upstream flow across the Pacific is quite uncertain due to several players aloft over eastern Asia. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html