Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 158 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 15 2019 - 12Z Wed Jun 19 2019 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Todays WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a blend of the 12 UTC GFS/GEFS mean, 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean, and the National Blend of Models. Applied greater blend weightings to the deterministic models day 4/5 to provide detail consistent with above normal predictability. Forecast spread remains manageable, but gradually increases through later period. This supports increasing ensemble weightings day 6-8 in a pattern with closer to average uncertainty. This solution maintains good WPC forecast continuity. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Threats Highlights... It remains the case that recent models/ensembles have been in general agreement in principle with a slow pattern evolution. Two slowly moving upper lows to the north and south of the mainland favor weak ridging with generally warm and benign weather over the interior through this forecast period. In this pattern, a closed mean trough will lift over the Arctic to the northeast of the state and force settlement of a trailing/cooling front down over the North Slope. Well underneath, slow moving closed low/trough energies shift from south of the eastern Aleutians/Alaskan Peninsula toward Kodiac Island and the northern Gulf of Alaska days 4-8. Precipitation/windy/unsettled conditions are expected to spread across the region and downstream into the Alaskan southern tier. This system will also offer a prolonged maritime hazard. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html