Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 128 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 21 2019 - 12Z Tue Jun 25 2019 The ensemble means are indicating a broad upper level ridge across mainland Alaska and an upper level trough axis extending from the Bering Sea to the northern Gulf of Alaska on Friday, along with a well defined trough from the polar vortex just north of the Arctic Coast. The upper low embedded within the southern portion of that trough should track eastward across the northern Gulf of Alaska through Saturday, followed by increased ridging. There is a broad model signal for an upper low near the Kamchatka Peninsula and the western Aleutians this upcoming weekend. This will have an effect on the downstream ridge axis across Alaska for the second of the forecast period as shortwave perturbations pivot around this broad upper low. There is a general consensus that this pattern will be slow to change for this weekend and the beginning of next week as the ensemble means are hinting at an omega block developing. In terms of sensible weather, most locations are expected to remain dry, with the best chance for any showers to be across the elevated terrain of southern Alaska. Some showers will be possible across northern Alaska on Saturday, and more widespread rain will be possible across the Aleutians as the next oceanic storm passes by to the south. Pleasant temperatures are expected with a high quality airmass in place, with highs generally above normal with readings from the upper 60s to lowers 80s across inland areas, and colder near the coasts. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html