Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 02 2019 - 12Z Sat Jul 06 2019 ...Guidance and Predictability Assessment... Todays WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was mainly derived from a composite blend of the 12 UTC GFS/GEFS and 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean guidance along with the 12 UTC National Blend of Models (NBM) Tuesday into Wednesday. Model and ensemble forecast spread increases for the remainder of this forecast period next week to favor transition for preferece of a NBM and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble blended solution. This offers good WPC continuity and was collaborated with local WFOs. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... The northern extent of the upper ridge over the Interior/North Slope temporarily breaksdown into early next week. This indicates that widespread portions of the Interior will be influenced by a stronger and more active westerly mid/upper-level flow. This will include frontal passage with associated swath of widespread moisture and precipitation working across a ambient summertime lead airmass. A deeper/closed second main system brews back across the Bering Sea and offers some heavy rain/wind threat for the Aleutians early next week. This system now subsequently lifts northward over far northeast Russia to the Arctic later week. This track is farther west of Alaska than was indicated over the last couple of days. This is due to a strong ensemble mean trend signal to rebuild a potent and shielding ridge back over much of Alaska days 5-8. This ride offers a wildfire and excessive heat risk over a prolonged holiday period. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - High winds risk for the Aleutians, Mon-Tue, July 01-02. - Heavy rain risk for the Aleutians, Wed-Thu, July 03-04. - Enhanced wildfire risk for portions of the mainland Alaska, Mon-Fri, Jul 01-05. - Excessive heat for portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Fri, Jul 04-05. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html