Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 04 2019 - 12Z Mon Jul 08 2019
...Guidance and Predictability Assessment...
Todays WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was mainly derived
from a composite blend of well clustered 00 UTC ECMWF and 00 UTC
NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the 12 UTC National Blend of
Models (NBM) Days 4-8. This blend offers great WPC continuity in
an anomalous pattern with above normal predictability.
...Weather/Threats Highlights...
An upper low/trough and wavy surface frontal system will work
across the Bering Sea to offer some lingering heavy rains for the
Aleutians past midweek. This system lifts northward over far
northeast Russia and into the Arctic late week. This track holds
well west of mainland Alaska due to a massive sheilding upper
ridge slated to dominate most Alaskan weather this forecast
period. This ridge offers a widespread wildfire and excessive heat
risk over the mainland through the upcoming prolonged holiday
period. This ridge is impressive with heights building to 3+
standard deviations above normal that will likely lead to some
record hot temperatures.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html