Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 16 2019 - 12Z Sat Jul 20 2019
The forecast period begins on Tuesday with an elongated upper low
situated over the northern Gulf of Alaska and a general ridge axis
stretching from the Bering Sea to the Northwest Territories. The
trend in the guidance has been for this upper low to track
eastward a bit quicker across the northern Gulf region, with an
upper level trough lingering behind across the Aleutians. By late
in the week, a potent upper low north of the Arctic Coast should
support the development of an occluded surface low and be strong
enough to push a cold front across much of the central and
northern part of the state by next weekend. The greatest model
differences reside across the north Pacific, with the GFS
indicating a much greater degree of upper level ridging across the
Aleutians, whilst the CMC, ECMWF, and even the ensemble means
support lower heights aloft. The forecast was weighted more
heavily towards the ECMWF and the EC mean, with some of the GFS
and CMC included as well.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through
much of the forecast period, particularly across the Interior and
over the higher terrain. Given the abatement in the strength of
the upper ridge, temperatures will be cooler than those observed
in recent days, and below average readings will be possible by the
end of the forecast period if the cold front makes enough
southward progress across the state.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html