Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 20 2019 - 12Z Wed Jul 24 2019 Flat flow aloft will transition into a more amplified pattern with time across northeast Asia, the northeastern-most Pacific, and Alaska. Despite this, the guidance shows moderate spread through the period. On Friday night, the 00z Canadian and 00z ECMWF were closest to the ensemble mean solutions, so they were initially given more weight with the system crossing Alaska Friday night through Saturday. Thereafter, the 00z Canadian becomes an outlier and was scrapped. The 00z ECMWF is on the quick side of the guidance with another system moving through the Bering Sea early next week, while the 12z GFS is closest to the ensemble means. Thought the best course of action was a more Canadian/ECMWF heavy blend (along with the 00z ECMWF mean and 00z NAEFS mean) early on before shifting more in the direction of the 12z GFS/ensemble means early next week. While this led to modest changes in frontal position (northward) and weak waves moving through AK early on, it converged upon continuity with time. Confidence is below average in the forecast by next Tuesday. Mild to warm temperatures are forecast for the state this period -- temperatures remain on pace for record warmth for the month of July across south-central AK. Northern and southeastern AK/panhandle appear wettest this period as disturbances move through the Westerlies bringing occasionally moderate precipitation. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html