Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 29 2019 - 12Z Fri Aug 02 2019 A relatively progressive flow pattern is expected across Alaska during the extended forecast period. Several shortwaves are forecast to progress from the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska during the period. Meanwhile, model consensus has improved that a deep upper low should move from eastern Russia and the Arctic Ocean into northwest mainland Alaska by the middle of next week, pushing a cold front into western/northwestern Alaska before it weakens. In general, deterministic solutions showed broad consensus during the day 4-5 (Mon-Tue) time period, with relatively minor detail differences. Thus, a blend of the ECMWF/GFS/CMC was used as a starting point for the forecast during that time frame. After that, differences gradually increase among the deterministic guidance, both with respect to the evolution of the upper low as well as perhaps more amplified energy crossing the Bering Sea by late next week. Ensembles showed somewhat better consensus than deterministic solutions, and thus the forecast was trended to much heavier ECENS/GEFS ensemble mean weighting starting on day 6 (Wed) and continuing through day 8 (Fri). In general, this pattern will support scattered showers across much of the state Mon-Wed as shortwave energy passes over the state. Precipitation may begin to increase in coverage by later next week as the more amplified trough takes shape across the Bering Sea and a weakening low pressure system moves into southern mainland Alaska. Ryan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html