Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 204 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 11 2019 - 12Z Thu Aug 15 2019 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Models and ensembles show an amplified/blocky flow pattern characterized at medium range time scales by closed upper lows cenetred over the Bering Sea and just to the northeast of Alaska, with stretched ridging from the Bering Strait to western Alaska and the Alaskan Peninsula/western Gulf of Alaska. Models and ensembles were in decent agreement overall, but with some continuity issues. The models continue also vary with the handling of smaller scale embedded systems. These realities seem to limit forecast confidence to only slightly above normal levels despite much better than average larger scale agreement days 4-8. Accordingly, The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means day 4/Sunday before shifting weighting substantailly in favor of the more compatable ensemble means days 5-8. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... This pattern is still expected to favor widespread rain over the Aleutians ahead of the slow-moving front in the Bering Sea over the course of several days. Scattered rain/convection is likely over portions of the interior ahead of the baroclinic zone that will set up on the height gradient south of the Brooks Range. Temperatures will be below average over much of northern/northeaster areas on NW flow aloft, but above average over southwestern Alaska under upper ridging. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html