Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 427 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2019 - 12Z Mon Oct 07 2019 Complicated flow pattern over the high latitudes (and even mid-latitudes) yields a rather low confidence forecast overall. However, the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF offer reasonable clustering near a subset of the ensemble consensus that aligns with the forecast of TS Mitag and its extratropical transition into the flow. This should yield downstream ridging into the western then central Bering next Sun/Mon ahead of ex-Mitag which favors the GEFS/Canadian ensembles rather than the flattened (perhaps by way of averaging its 50 members) ECMWF ensemble mean. With low confidence, opted to forge a middle ground but with more emphasis on the GEFS mean. Change in the forecast with the system along 50N Thu results in more northern stream influence across western areas Friday with an incoming system. That has trended slower and a bit deeper but otherwise has been somewhat consistent over the past couple of days. By next Sunday, ex-Mitag should likely be lifting to near Kamchatka but there remains a large degree of spread (even from its day 3 forecast). Consensus position would be slower than the GFS (which is typically fast) but a bit quicker than the ECMWF (typically a bit slow). Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html