Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2019 - 12Z Tue Oct 08 2019 Models and ensembles are finally starting to come into better agreement with the longwave pattern over the high latitudes. GFS/GEFS remain a bit quicker than the ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble members with both the track/pace of Typhoon Mitag (likely extratropical in four or five days) and downstream ridge/trough couplet. With a slowing trend overall opted to heavily weight the ECMWF ensemble mean through the period as its spread 24 hrs ago that washed out the amplitude has now tightened its forecast spread and shows better definition. Confidence remains average at best given the details yet to be resolved upstream. Lead system through the Bering Strait will push through western areas Friday as its parent low skirts the Brooks Range. Triple point low will redevelop in the Gulf and move into the Panhandle by Sunday/Monday bringing low elevation rain and higher elevation snow from Southcentral eastward. Ridging ahead of ex-Mitag will push through the Aleutians/Bering Sea Sunday as the main surface low lifts along the eastern Kamchatka coast toward the Gulf of Anadyr by the end of the period. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Mon, Oct 5-Oct 7. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html