Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 235 PM EDT Fri Oct 04 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 08 2019 - 12Z Sat Oct 12 2019 Models/ensembles show an amplified but progressive pattern in place across Alaska during the extended period. Consensus among the guidance was quite good during the first half of the forecast period (Tue-Thu). Models show a relatively deep low pressure system moving east across the Bering Sea to the west coast of mainland Alaska. A heavily deterministic, multi-model blend including the 00Z ECMWF/CMC/12Z GFS was used as a basis for the forecast during days 4-6. By later in the period, spread increases with respect to an area of low pressure which may track into the eastern Gulf from the south on day 7 (Fri), and with the next incoming shortwave and low pressure system crossing the Bering Sea and reaching the Alaska Peninsula by day 8 (Sat). Given the more variable solutions later in the forecast period, opted to lean heavily on the ECENS/NAEFS ensemble means for the forecast during days 7-8. Ryan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html