Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EDT Fri Oct 04 2019
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 08 2019 - 12Z Sat Oct 12 2019
Models/ensembles show an amplified but progressive pattern in
place across Alaska during the extended period. Consensus among
the guidance was quite good during the first half of the forecast
period (Tue-Thu). Models show a relatively deep low pressure
system moving east across the Bering Sea to the west coast of
mainland Alaska. A heavily deterministic, multi-model blend
including the 00Z ECMWF/CMC/12Z GFS was used as a basis for the
forecast during days 4-6. By later in the period, spread increases
with respect to an area of low pressure which may track into the
eastern Gulf from the south on day 7 (Fri), and with the next
incoming shortwave and low pressure system crossing the Bering Sea
and reaching the Alaska Peninsula by day 8 (Sat). Given the more
variable solutions later in the forecast period, opted to lean
heavily on the ECENS/NAEFS ensemble means for the forecast during
days 7-8.
Ryan
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html