Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 139 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 16 2019 - 12Z Sun Oct 20 2019 Guidance continues to show stormy flow near Alaska. The better clustering of model and ensemble forecasts at medium range time scales offers some improved forecast confidence, but differences remain with embedded small-mid scale weather focusing systems. Prefer to include model with ensemble guidance for better detail and greater system strengths consistent with predictabilityand highly favorable trough/north Pacific jet energy support aloft. The 12 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF seem suprisingly compatable with each other and ensembles and the WPC product suite was derived from this composite blend. This maintains good WPC continuity. The infusion of the potent extratropical remains of super typhoon Hagibis into the Bering Sea well offshore western Alaska will prolong unsettled weather as the system meanders under a closed mean upper trough, but with modest precipitation working onshore into western Alaska. Meanwhile, system energies will consolidate over the Gulf of Alaska into mid-late next week and support deepened low developments that will threaten maritime interests and pump enhanced precipitation into southern and southeast Alaska. Upstream,re-newed storm developments underneath the Bering Sea meandering Hagibis extratropical low will meanwhile threaten the Aleutians and southwest Alaska/Akpen next midweek with highly unsettled conditions. This system is stated to work ernestly into the Gulf of Alaska in the wake of the lead system, with similar results. Predictability is lower at longer time frames but there is a growing guidance signal for additional deepening low approach from the north Pacific to the south of the Aleutians downstream to the Gulf of Alaska in about a week in a continuing stormy pattern. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html