Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 19 2019 - 12Z Wed Oct 23 2019
...Weather/Hazards Highlights and Guidance/Predictability
Assessment...
Model guidance this morning shows fairly good agreement on the
synoptic pattern affecting Alaska through the medium-range. The
remnants of Hagibis will continue to gradually decay as it
meanders over the Bering Sea into early next week. Precipitation
should be light and scattered in nature, and be confined along the
southern periphery of mainland Alaska. The highest chance of rain
is expected for the Alaska Panhandle on Sunday when a fast-moving
low pressure system is forecast to arrive. Meanwhile, scattered
showers associated with the decaying Bering Sea low is forecast to
rotate across the Aluetians through the weekend into Monday. By
next Wednesday, a low pressure wave may deepen into a more
substantial cyclone and approach the eastern Aleutians from the
south.
The WPC grids for Alaska were derived mainly from the consensus of
the 00Z ECMWF, 00Z EC mean, 06/12Z GFS, and the 06Z GEFS, with
increasing weights toward the ensemble means for Days 7 and 8.
Some 00Z NAEFS was used for these days as well.
Kong
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html