Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 337 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 01 2019 - 12Z Tue Nov 05 2019 Upper ridging is forecast to remain just south of the Gulf of Alaska late this week through next weekend as additional ridging moves through the Bering Sea into western Alaska. This will favor troughing moving from southwestern Alaska towards the Panhandle. This brings a surface low into southwestern Alaska where it weakens, while a stationary front lingers across the Gulf atop the upper ridging to its south. By early next week, upper level troughing moving along the southern coast into the Panhandle may try to slowly push the front southward to the southern Panhandle region. There was good model agreement with this evolution so a general model blend sufficed for this system, with slight weighting towards the ECMWF given its better run to run continuity. Across the North Slope, models show some timing differences on troughing moving through the region mid to late period, with the ECMWF a bit faster than the GFS and the ensemble means. Shortwave energy rounding the base of a closed low in eastern Russia sends a surface low towards the western Bering/Aleutians. Trended towards the ensemble means with this system just given normal timing/intensity differences at the longer lead time. Rain/snow will spread across the Alaska Peninsula and Southcentral into southeastern areas later in the week as the lead Pacific front makes steady progress eastward. Precipitation will linger over the Panhandle with WSW flow aloft around the stationary frontal boundary. The next Bering system should bring another round of rain to portions of the western Aleutians. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Thu, Oct 31. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Fri, Nov 1. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu, Oct 31 WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html