Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 03 2019 - 12Z Thu Nov 07 2019
Forecast for next week will see upper ridging over the Gulf and
northeastern Russia consolidate into northwestern Alaska, favoring
troughing to its southwest and south. The models/ensembles were in
good agreement through the period and a multi-model/ensemble blend
was used to minimize forecast changes. Increased (decreased)
weight was put on the ensemble means (deterministic) models at
later periods. 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF formed a good consensus
throughout on either side of the ensemble mean consensus.
Wavy frontal boundary attached to a slowly northward-moving
central Pacific system will sink southward into the southern
Panhandle as strengthening high pressure slips across the Brooks
Range Monday and the Yukon Tuesday. This will bring increased
easterly flow to the Panhandle and eventually colder air with
temperatures below normal. Surface high pressure above 1044mb may
be within ~5mb of monthly (November) high pressure records for
southwestern Yukon and perhaps into the northern Panhandle. System
south of the central Aleutians will slowly lift northward and
weaken, but spread rain/snow over the eastern Aleutians into
southwestern Alaska.
In the western Bering, a system will pass through the western
Aleutians Tuesday and track southeastward as its triple point
takes over and reforms south of the AkPen. This will limit
rain/snow to mainly coastal and near-inland areas from the
Aleutians and across Kodiak Island.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle,
Sat, Nov 2.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html