Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 03 2019 - 12Z Thu Nov 07 2019 Forecast for next week will see upper ridging over the Gulf and northeastern Russia consolidate into northwestern Alaska, favoring troughing to its southwest and south. The models/ensembles were in good agreement through the period and a multi-model/ensemble blend was used to minimize forecast changes. Increased (decreased) weight was put on the ensemble means (deterministic) models at later periods. 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF formed a good consensus throughout on either side of the ensemble mean consensus. Wavy frontal boundary attached to a slowly northward-moving central Pacific system will sink southward into the southern Panhandle as strengthening high pressure slips across the Brooks Range Monday and the Yukon Tuesday. This will bring increased easterly flow to the Panhandle and eventually colder air with temperatures below normal. Surface high pressure above 1044mb may be within ~5mb of monthly (November) high pressure records for southwestern Yukon and perhaps into the northern Panhandle. System south of the central Aleutians will slowly lift northward and weaken, but spread rain/snow over the eastern Aleutians into southwestern Alaska. In the western Bering, a system will pass through the western Aleutians Tuesday and track southeastward as its triple point takes over and reforms south of the AkPen. This will limit rain/snow to mainly coastal and near-inland areas from the Aleutians and across Kodiak Island. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sat, Nov 2. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html