Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 550 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 24 2019 - 12Z Thu Nov 28 2019 Lower amplitude flow will be punctuated by a fairly robust Bering Sea system next week. Some shifts in the recent model guidance were handled by a blend of the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET to start. To the south, there remains disagreement on how to handle a digging trough that will likely split off an upper low, but may allow its northern part to slide eastward toward/south of Hadai Gwaii. For the Bering system, models have nudged a bit quicker overall to bring the system toward the western coastline by early Tuesday. Parent low may have a better chance of lifting northward given the flow across the mid-latitudes that would be flatter/quicker with a weaker sfc low. This may bring stronger southerly winds northward toward the Seward peninsula than forecast 24 hrs ago. Introduced a hazard area in light of the increased probabilities. Still expect some portion of the front to slide into the Gulf next Wed/Thu and move east on a rather zonal flow. Southern system may stay south enough to not even affect the southern Panhandle next Tue, with most of the energy lingering as a closed low in the central Pacific. This would allow for a drier period for the Panhandle after the initial trough Sun/Mon weakens. Blend of the non-12Z Canadian guidance served well to start, with a trend toward the 12Z ECMWF/GEFS mean and 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean. 12Z ECMWF may be too aggressive with a piece of the mid-latitude trough that moves into the Gulf but the 12Z GFS may be too weak. Blended solution was used to mitigate future changes. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Nov 25-Nov 26. - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Nov 26-Nov 27. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Nov 25-Nov 26. - High significant wave heights for coastal portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Nov 25-Nov 26. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html