Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 614 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Dec 01 2019 - 12Z Thu Dec 05 2019 Upper troughing will slowly migrate out of the western Bering Sea into mainland Alaska, giving way to much cooler temperatures over the northern interior. Upper ridging is forecast to move into the Bering for the middle of next week ahead of a deepening upper low in the Gulf of Okhotsk. Lead system of interest will slide along the AKPEN early Sunday then toward Prince William Sound early Monday. The 12Z GFS was closest to continuity and the preferred near-offshore track as the 12Z ECMWF jogged inland across the Kenai. The ensembles were also displaced to the north but the progressive flow should favor the flatter GFS-like solution. To the north, however, the GFS appeared too sharp with the upper trough over the Seward peninsula early Sunday as it maintained a more folded over orientation of the upper ridge to the north. Preferred the 12Z ECMWF there despite the opposite preference to the south as the scenarios should not be mutually exclusive. Front will continue to move eastward into the Panhandle by early Tuesday with associated coastal rain and inland/mountain snow which could be locally heavy. Next system will likely push into the Bering next Wed/Thu as high pressure settles into the interior. This will favor much colder temperatures by the end of the period as even the ensemble means show temperatures dropping into the -20s/-30s in normally colder areas. Ensemble consensus approach was sufficient for the Wed/Thu period but with some details from the GFS/ECMWF given good agreement along/west of the Dateline. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazard: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Tue, Dec 1-Dec 3. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html