Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 429 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019 Valid 12Z Mon Dec 02 2019 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2019 Lead troughing over the Bering will translate eastward early next week as additional/stronger troughing exits Kamchatka toward the end of next week. Ridging will build over the North Pacific with an extension into the AKPEN next Wed-Fri. The models/ensembles showed relatively good clustering overall but with continued detail differences. Did not favor any one model but a blend of the 12Z guidance offered a reasonable starting point (with an exception being the ECMWF where its earlier 00Z run was used in tandem with its latest run, given its seemingly too far northward jog into Southcentral next Monday with the lead sfc low). For that lead low on Monday, model/ensemble consensus has come into better agreement on the ongoing preference for a near-offshore track toward/into Prince William Sound before pushing eastward. Next system will skirt south of the Aleutians Tue/Wed and split to the southeast. For next Wed-Fri, a couple systems will eventually rotate into the western Bering with a more defined system perhaps by next Friday per the ensembles. By then, high pressure will settle into the interior, allowing temperatures to fall in normally colder areas. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazard: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Dec 1-Dec 2. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html