Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 02 2019 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2019
Lead troughing over the Bering will translate eastward early next
week as additional/stronger troughing exits Kamchatka toward the
end of next week. Ridging will build over the North Pacific with
an extension into the AKPEN next Wed-Fri. The models/ensembles
showed relatively good clustering overall but with continued
detail differences. Did not favor any one model but a blend of the
12Z guidance offered a reasonable starting point (with an
exception being the ECMWF where its earlier 00Z run was used in
tandem with its latest run, given its seemingly too far northward
jog into Southcentral next Monday with the lead sfc low). For that
lead low on Monday, model/ensemble consensus has come into better
agreement on the ongoing preference for a near-offshore track
toward/into Prince William Sound before pushing eastward. Next
system will skirt south of the Aleutians Tue/Wed and split to the
southeast. For next Wed-Fri, a couple systems will eventually
rotate into the western Bering with a more defined system perhaps
by next Friday per the ensembles. By then, high pressure will
settle into the interior, allowing temperatures to fall in
normally colder areas.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazard:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and
mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Dec 1-Dec 2.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html