Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 605 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Jan 30 2020 - 12Z Mon Feb 03 2020 ...Well below average temperatures for most of mainland Alaska through this week... ...Deep low pressure systems likely to bring heavy precipitation and maritime hazards to portions of the Alaska Panhandle and the Aleutians... Through much the medium range period, the latest models and ensemble guidance continues to show above average consensus on the overall synoptic pattern. Upper level troughing should be reinforced through next week, before gradually beginning to shift eastward next weekend. Forecast confidence remains high for a cold surface air mass to settle across much of Alaska well into next week, with max and min temperatures 20+ degrees below normal for some places. As upper level ridging moves into the western mainland next weekend, temperatures should finally rebound back towards normal, or possibly even above normal by early next week. A deep low pressure system lifting north into the Gulf of Mexico on day 4/Thursday should bring periods of widespread precipitation, locally heavy, to parts of the southern Mainland and much of the Panhandle. Lingering deep layered cold air could support locally heavy snows, even into the lower elevations of southern Alaska and the northern Panhandle. After this, weak broad low pressure maintains across the Gulf, while another deep surface low moves towards the western Aleutians next Saturday-Monday. The most recent model runs have consistently shown this to be a deep cyclone, with central pressure possibly down into the 950s mb. Differences in placement of this low increase dramatically by day 7-8, so an ensemble approach best represents this system for now. Expect increased rainfall chances, high winds, and maritime risks to accompany this cyclone into early next week. Today's WPC progs favor a majority deterministic approach through day 5, with increasing weighting of the ensemble means beyond to mitigate the smaller scale, less predictable, detail differences. This maintains good continuity both with yesterday's Alaska progs and with downstream preferences over the CONUS. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html