Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 553 PM EST Thu Feb 06 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2020 - 12Z Fri Feb 14 2020 Models/ensembles show general consensus that an upper-level ridge axis across the North Pacific will gradually build northward across Alaska through the extended forecast period, perhaps weakening to some degree by the middle of next week in response to strong incoming shortwave energy in the westerlies. The dominant storm track will be across the Aleutians and north into the Bering Sea. Models showed quite a bit of variability with respect to the evolution and track of a deep low pressure systen near the western Aleutians on Mon, but the ECMWF seemed to show the most consistency over the past several runs and was the preferred solution early in the extended period. This system could produce strong/high winds across portions of the Aleutians Mon-Tue. Strong warm advection ahead of this system should spread additional precipitation across the Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula and into portions of western mainland Alaska Mon into Tue. Farther east, another relatively weak wave of low pressure should move along a lingering frontal boundary in the Gulf of Alaska Sun night-Mon, bringing a round of precip to the Panhandle/Southeast Alaska. Models show yet another low pressure system approaching the western Aleutians by the middle/end of next week. Model differences on track/timing were a bit higher here, so gradually increasing emphasis on ECENS/GEFS ensemble means by that time helped smooth out some of these differences toward a consensus solution. Given these considerations, the ECMWF was heavily weighted early in the forecast period, with a gradual trend toward heavier weighting of ECENS/NAEFS ensemble means through time, and majority ensemble means after day 6 (Wed). Ryan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Feb 9-Feb 10. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html