Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 627 PM EST Fri Feb 07 2020 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 11 2020 - 12Z Sat Feb 15 2020 ...Guidance and Uncertainty Assessment... The models offer less than stellar run to run continuity and greater than normal forecast spread days 4-7. Accordingly and after collaboration with the local WFO offices, the forecast starting point for the WPC Alaskan product suite was a composite blend of more reasonably compatable guidance from the 12 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and the 19 UTC National Blend of Models. Forecaster adjustments were applied to this smooth blend to add increased detail consistent with individual weather feature predictability and support. This especially included the deepening of offshore lows. ...Weather Pattern and Hazards Highlights... The mid-upper flow pattern next week is expected to feature a mean trough/low through the Aleutians into the west-central Bering Sea that pumps a mean downstream ridge up over the Alaskan Peniinsula and Southwest Alaska. This pattern will favor development of a series of potentially deep storms that may support a threat of heavy precipitation/winds/seas across the Aleutians and west-central Bering Sea early-mid next week with a later week threat also working into the Alaskan Peninsula and Southwest Alaska. Lead surface high pressure/cold air settled over the Interior moderates later next week as heights gradually rise to the lee of the ridge with upper trough eastward ejection into Canada. Arctic stream energies digging into the base of this trough may combine with an uncertain influx of Gulf of Alaska trough energies to meanwhile support a few lows that may present some heavier precipitation threat to the Southeast Panhandle. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation for parts of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon Feb 10. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html