Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 538 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 19 2020 - 12Z Sun Feb 23 2020 Strong positive height anomalies south of Kamchatka in the subtropical Pacific (~25N/140E) will favor troughing in the Bering Sea and western Alaska late next week into next weekend. The 12Z models were in good agreement to start as a lead system pushes inland over eastern areas and the Panhandle on Wednesday and a second system traverses the Aleutians. That second system should straddle the islands but then move toward Kodiak and toward the southern portion of the Kenai Peninsula by early Fri. The GFS again was just to the NW of the other deterministic and ensemble consensus, which has been fairly steady the past two days. Preferred to stay with the larger consensus which was very close to continuity. Parent low will likely linger in the Gulf through at least Sat. By next weekend, another system will likely push eastward along the Aleutians thought the deterministic models diverge north-south. Ensemble consensus was in the middle, along the island chain, and this track was maintained in the manual progs. Temperatures near to above average in eastern areas will trend back toward below average as colder air is dragged down from the north behind the lead and second system. The Panhandle should see nearer to average temperatures with mainly westerly onshore flow, but a nearly daily chance of precipitation. Highest rain/snow totals are likely over the southeast side of the Kenai Peninsula eastward across Prince William Sound to Yakutat and through the Panhandle. To the north, lead front on Wednesday will bring several inches of snow to western areas toward the Brooks Range (Galena to Kotzebue to Bettles). Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html