Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 558 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 20 2020 - 12Z Mon Feb 24 2020 Troughing along 180 is favored late this week through the weekend and into next week as subtropical ridging off Asia meanders offshore. Most of the 12Z models were in good agreement to start as a robust system traverses the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN. The GFS has remained to the northwest of all other deterministic models for several days (and stood alone/farthest northwest among all recent ~90 ensemble members) and was again discounted. Again followed the lead of the 12Z ECMWF with support from the UKMET and Canadian as well as the GEFS mean and ECMWF ensemble mean. Parent low will likely linger in the Gulf through the weekend as the front pushes through the Panhandle. Models have become more bullish on a weak trailing front that may attempt to lift toward at least the southern Panhandle Saturday (GFS farther north than most) into Sunday. At the same time, another system will likely push eastward along or just south of the Aleutians through next Monday. With continued model disparity, relied fully on an ensemble consensus between the NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean which may take the system toward the eastern Aleutians by the end of the period as heights rise into the Gulf. Temperatures near to above average in interior/eastern areas will trend back toward below average as colder air is dragged down from the north behind the lead system. The Panhandle should see nearer to average temperatures (but still trending a bit cooler) with mainly westerly onshore flow and a nearly daily chance of precipitation. Highest rain/snow totals are likely over the southeast side of the Kenai Peninsula eastward across Prince William Sound to Yakutat and through the Panhandle, perhaps with additional heavier amounts over the southern Panhandle depending on the trailing front this coming weekend. More rain/snow will spread across the Aleutians Sat-Mon as the next system passes eastward. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html