Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 638 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 21 2020 - 12Z Tue Feb 25 2020 Troughing along 180 is favored late this week through the weekend and into next week as subtropical ridging off Asia meanders offshore. The 12Z models were in good agreement to start as a system settles toward the Kenai Peninsula early Fri. Occluded/cold front will push through the Panhandle as the old parent low dissipates on Sat. Models have again become a bit more bullish on a trailing sfc low and front that may skirt northward just offshore the Panhandle as its front moves into British Columbia late Sat. Blend of the 12Z guidance proved a best bet with timing differences remaining. Farther west and at the same time, another system will likely push eastward just south of the Aleutians through next Monday before lifting northward as heights rise downstream into the Gulf. Utilized a blend of the 12Z ECMWF/Canadian with the 12Z GEFS and 00Z ECMWF ensemble means to minimize any unforecastable smaller sfc lows (per the GFS) that have no predictability (though the GFS was not necessarily implausible). Temperatures near to above average in interior/eastern areas will trend back toward below average as colder air is dragged down from the north behind the lead system. The Panhandle should see nearer to average temperatures (but still trending a bit cooler) with mainly westerly onshore flow and a nearly daily chance of precipitation. Highest rain/snow totals are likely over the southeast side of the Kenai Peninsula Fri around the sfc low, eastward from around Yakutat and southeastward through the Panhandle, perhaps with additional heavier amounts over the southern Panhandle with the passing of the trailing sfc low Saturday. More rain/snow will spread across the Aleutians Sat-Tue as the next system (or two) move through. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Thu-Fri, Feb 20-Feb 21, and portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Feb 24. - Heavy snow across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Thu-Fri, Feb 20-Feb 21. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Sun, Feb 20-Feb 23. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html