Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 624 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 19 2020 - 12Z Mon Mar 23 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... A protracted series of dynamic lows will lift through a highly unsettled Aleutians and Bering Sea and tend to work along with precipitation/weather inland into the Interior/North Slope then Arctic Ocean. This will include development of a particularly deep Bering Sea storm Thursday that offers well organized frontal structures that will focus winds and widespread and enhanced/widespread precipitation. This low will gradually fill and lift poleward later week in the wake of an exiting lead Arctic Ocean system, but will remain a significant focus for weather. Several more systems will then train across the region in this recurring pattern, but predictability is lower for these more modest low/precipitation threats. Expect moderate temperatures over the Interior/North Slope this week, but remain cold enough to support periods of heavy snow, with a particular risk for northwest Alaska. Meanwhile underneath, additional but weaker system trough/jet energies will break eastward through the Gulf of Alaska in a pattern with more modest precipitation potential for southern and southeast Alaska. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite valid Thu-Fri was derived from a composite blend of reasonably well clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian. Transitioned to the compatable 12 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means over next weekend amid steadily growing model spread. This methodology tends to mitigate less predictable small scale variance. Forecast continuity and predictability overall seems above normal. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html